Every year, a few former first rounders slip into the middle rounds for reasons other than their age or sharp and sudden decline. This year, owners have the ability to stock their shelves with former firsties like canned peaches. The question is, should they? Hanley and Reyes have surely been taken in the top 5 and will likely be drafted in the teens and 20’s, but both guys are big risks. A-Rod and Carl Crawford used to call the first round home and this year will go much later, but Alex gets tested now and Carl’s wrist is a lingering problem. The right side of the Phillies’ infield represents the last chance to snag a previous perennial and as the last two to go, Utley and Howard offer the most value among the former elites.
91. John Axford, RP – MIL. With a 2.48 ERA and .204 opponents’ batting average against him in 2010, Axford didn’t ask for the closer’s role. He took it. He followed his 24-save rookie season with 46 saves in 48 chances with a 1.95 ERA and 86 K’s in 73.2 innings and held opposing hitters to a .212 average. He’ll continue to get tons of hitters hacking, and starters Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum should produce a good amount of ninth inning leads again in 2012.
92. Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B – BAL. In his first year in Baltimore, Mark managed to keep his strikeout total under 200 for the first time in his four-year career. Just two years removed from hitting .260/44/102/24 for the D-Backs, Reynolds clubbed 37 HR in his first season in the pitching-heavy AL East. Still just 28, if he ever gets it together pitch selection-wise he goes from dangerous to scary.
93. Brett Gardner, LF – NYY. Gardner got off to a slow start for the Yanks in 2011, hitting .194 with four steals in April. He eventually got it going, snagging 28 bases over a three-month stretch while hitting .301, .317 and .289 in May, June and July. 47 and 49 steals in the last two years have made Gardner a constant in the Yankee lineup. Even without a move to the leadoff spot, Brett’s elite speed and knowledge of the metric system give him a legitimate shot at 60+ swipes.
94. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B – BOS. Kevin went from you kill us to you’re killin’ me at some point in 2008. In three years since, he has averaged 380 at bats, and last year his injuries affected his performance for the first time, as his average dipped to a career-low .258. If new skipper Bobby Valentine can get 1000 combined at bats from Youkilis and Crawford, he’ll still be managing ballgames in October.
95. Matt Wieters, C – BAL. We wish Matt had a Twitter account. If he did, we could gently point out, first that we’re big fans, and second that he happened to maul to a .339 clip with a 1.124 OPS batting righty last year, and hit just .237 from the left side with a .665 OPS. Plenty of righty bats are actually better facing RHP, which begs the question of how dominating Matt could be if he went to hitting righty full time.
96. Chase Utley, 2B – PHI. Every second baseman in the league used to chase Utley. From 2005-2009, Chase either hit .300, hit 30+ HR or drove in 100+ runs, and in his career-best 2006 season he did all three. Now 33, it’s possible that Utley has gotten old young, as he’s failed to top 425 at bats in each of the past two seasons. The Phillies plan is to go easy on him in spring training so he’s fresher during the year. Our plan is to wait on him until at least the 10th round just in case he returns to form.
97. Ryan Howard, 1B – PHI. Ryan Howard started out as a temp at the Scranton branch. He started the fire, invented a website, became the youngest VP in Dunder-Mifflin history, ripped off the company, hit rockbottom and eventually got redemption. While TV Ryan Howard’s rise, fall and resurrection may not be an exact analogy for the Phillies’ Ryan Howard, the parallels are there. While we’re at it, the creative minds at The Office must be baseball fans, specifically the 1986 NLCS. It’s all about Mike Scott bossing around Dwight and Darryl.
98. Jimmy Rollins, SS – PHI. For the last 11 years we’ve enjoyed watching Rollins band the Phillies together. In ten of those seasons Jimmy has gotten more than 550 at bats. Sure, .268/16/30 isn’t spectacular, but he should lead off again this year and will be followed by a string of proven RBI men.
99. Alexei Ramirez, SS – CWS. Things seem to affect Alexei. Winning baseball and, to a large extent winning fantasy baseball is about being good enough that you’re better than the weather. You’re better than the injuries. You’re better than the blown calls. You’re better than the bad bounces. Every team has those. Every player has those. Alexei has the natural ability to be one of the top offensive shortstops in baseball, we just don’t know what effect the departure of Ozzie Guillen and Joey Cora will have on him. Our guess is he’ll be more relaxed under new manager Robin Ventura, which is always a good thing for hitters.
100. Shane Victorino, CF – PHI. We know there will be good fantasy years to be had in Philadelphia, we’re just not positive who will lead the way. Of the Phils that will slip in drafts, Victorino may be the best value. He’s younger than Utley, Howard and Rollins, is on a contract year, and has 20-30 potential if he can keep himself on the field for 550 at bats.
Ramblings of Baseball 